At the 2018 petrochemical industry development conference, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation issued the "2018 Annual Early Warning Report on Key Petrochemical Product Capacity." Among the 28 major petrochemical products that the report focuses on monitoring, polycarbonate, a relatively popular product, has appeared recently.
In recent years, China's polycarbonate supply gap has been relatively large, with a foreign dependence of 68% in 2017, strong growth on the demand side, and sufficient profit margins. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission are also encouraging the development of polycarbonate in various preferential policies and major project libraries. Therefore, in recent years, the development of polycarbonate industry in China has accelerated, with annual average growth rates of production capacity exceeding 20% for four consecutive years. "On the product.
Data show that in 2017 China's polycarbonate production capacity was 875,000 tons, the output exceeded 636,000 tons, the import was 1.385 million tons, the export was 288,000 tons, and the apparent consumption was 1.733 million tons. Compared with the current domestic production capacity, there is undoubtedly a huge business opportunity and blue ocean of investment in the polycarbonate industry. This stimulates enterprises with capital strength and technology to join the construction tide in succession.
Behind the infinite scenery, what is presented to us is the worry about the rapid expansion of production capacity and excess competition. According to statistics, there are currently more than 2 million tons / year of polycarbonate equipment to be built in China, and even greater capacity is under investigation. Luxi Group recently announced a high-profile "million-ton polycarbonate project was included in the" Shandong Province New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion Comprehensive Experimental Zone "Key Project". The next three years will be a period of concentrated release of China's polycarbonate capacity, and 2018 will be the first year of concentrated release of capacity. By 2021, it is expected that most of the planned projects will be completed and put into production, and the domestic production capacity will be greatly increased, which will bring a huge impact to the domestic polycarbonate industry. Compared with the apparent consumption growth rate of 2.2% in 2017, the imbalance in supply and demand growth may lead to an excess in the next few years.
Polycarbonate's downstream electronics and electrical appliances, and building board areas are growing slowly and demand is shrinking. At the same time, the development of high-end polycarbonate products is lagging. The recent international trade frictions that have received much attention will also become an uncertain factor for the development of the industry.